Early Rasmussen Poll Suggests Matthews / Specter Race Would be Close

An early Rasmussen survey for a potential 2010 match-up between incumbent Senator Arlen Specter (R-PA) and MSNBC political commentator Chris Matthews suggests that the race would be very close.  If Matthews were to run, this race would be by far one of the most closely watched in the country.

Republican Senator Arlen Specter is potentially vulnerable in his 2010 bid for re-election. A Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Pennsylvania voters finds Specter leading MSNBC pundit Chris Matthews by just three percentage points, 46% to 43%, in a match-up that may foreshadow one of the nation’s most closely-watched Senate races.

Matthews, whose handling of the presidential campaign drew loud complaints of bias from Republicans, has expressed interest in the race. His contract with MSNBC expires next year.

While Specter attracts support from 32% of Democrats, only 70% of Republicans say they would vote for him.

Trouble with Republicans is nothing new for Specter. In 2004, he barely survived a Republican Primary challenge from Pat Toomey.

While it is always troubling for an incumbent to poll below the 50% level when seeking re-election, much could happen to reshape this campaign with nearly two years to go.

As the article excerpt notes, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered to be vulnerable.  Some have speculated that Specter might retire after his term expires, but recent interviews about a possible battle with Matthews suggest that he fully intends to run again.

Politico reports that Matthews is quite serious about making a run and that he is seeking out a place to establish residency in Pennsylvania after his family gave their blessing to start a campaign.  Some insiders at his network speculate that he is only using this talk as a “negotiating ploy” in advance of new contract discussions.  His current deal runs out in June.

The article goes on to state that “Matthews has also been asking advisers whether to step down from his MSNBC post well before his contract expires,” to which they have said that he should step down as soon as possible if he is really serious about a run.